Prediction Season
The start of a new year often brings reflections on the past and resolutions for the future. It also inevitably sparks a wave of financial predictions about where the markets are headed. While these forecasts might sound compelling, it’s essential to understand their limitations and focus on strategies that genuinely help you achieve your goals, especially when planning for retirement.
At the end of 2023, financial analysts issued forecasts for the S&P 500 Index in 2024. Their predictions were all over the map. Some expected a decline, and none believed the index would deliver its historical average return of 12.3%1. Reality painted a very different picture: the S&P 500 rose by an impressive 23.3% in 20242, exceeding even the most optimistic projections.
Equity analyst predictions vs. actual for the S&P 500 Index calendar year return in 20243
1Based on actual S&P 500 Index average annual total return from 1927 to 2024.
2Price-only return.
3Source: Bloomberg, using the “Strategists S&P 500 Index Estimates for Year-End 2024” as of December 19, 2023. Analyst forecasts and 2024 returns are price returns. S&P data © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
This wide gap between forecasts and actual performance highlights a key point: markets are unpredictable. They reflect the combined views of millions of investors, absorbing new information faster than anyone can react. This “wisdom of the crowd” makes it incredibly difficult for any single person—or pundit—to outguess the market.
Rather than trying to predict the future or chase the next big opportunity, successful investing focuses on a disciplined, evidence-based approach. Two tips to help with that:
- Focus on What You Can Control
While you can’t control the markets, you can control how much you save, the level of risk you take, and how long you stay invested. These are the levers that matter most. - Tune out the noise. Financial news and social media are full of bold predictions and dramatic headlines that can lead to emotional decision-making—and not just in investing. With social media, there’s more noise than ever. Most of this chatter is just that—noise. By staying focused on your long-term plan, you reduce stress and anxiety over your investment portfolio.
Investing success is as much about mindset as it is about math. It requires patience (a.k.a. doing nothing) and the ability to stay calm when the market gets volatile.
McLean Asset Management Corporation (MAMC) is a SEC registered investment adviser. The content of this publication reflects the views of McLean Asset Management Corporation (MAMC) and sources deemed by MAMC to be reliable. There are many different interpretations of investment statistics and many different ideas about how to best use them. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information on this presentation. Indexes are not available for direct investment. All investments involve risk.
The information throughout this presentation, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statements regarding market or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission there of to the user. MAMC only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. It does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information contained in this presentation does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and you should, in considering this material, discuss your individual circumstances with professionals in those areas before making any decisions.
